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Monday, March 9, 2009
When will it END?
So we're 15-months into a recession... My question to everyone is when do you think we will emerge from this "crisis" (Two straight quarters of GDP growth) and which industry is going to be the leader in the recovery? I will post my thoughts tomorrow.
I would agree that it will most likely not happen until next year. At least at Ferro, I just wish we would see a bottom in sales. At least at that point, one can start to build some confidence for the future.
It is funny how history repeats itself. For all of the constant banter about not making the same mistake twice, we are doomed to repeat the past over and over. Mid to late 70's recession followed by insane inflation. See a pattern. If the cycle repeats itself, Obama and his agenda is going to get crushed along with the rest of us. Hopefully the Fed will be smart enough to sponge up all of the extra dollars when the economy starts to turn around, but I won't hold my breath.
Back to this recession... What's going to pull us out? Obviously with our continued policy of letting someone else fund our government (Republicans and Democrats), we eventually have to have something they will want in return and I do not mean US$ (hard assets like manufactured goods, real estate, technology, etc.). Alternative energy is the current buzzword, but when most of the world already is leaps and bounds beyond us (wind power - Europe, ethanol - Brazil, battery technology - Asia) I don't see this industry being our savior.
One scary reality that I have found more and more true as I continue to work in industry... Accountants run the world. It is amazing how much non-sense is in a companies monthly financial report. Most of the numbers are not real just variances and the most aggravating part about it. When asked where these variances originate or how are they calculated 9 times out of 10 they do not have a clue. It's statements like this that truly frighten me.
3 comments:
The first quarter of positive GDP growth will be no earlier than 2nd quarter 2010.
I think we have another 15 months to go....
I would agree that it will most likely not happen until next year. At least at Ferro, I just wish we would see a bottom in sales. At least at that point, one can start to build some confidence for the future.
It is funny how history repeats itself. For all of the constant banter about not making the same mistake twice, we are doomed to repeat the past over and over. Mid to late 70's recession followed by insane inflation. See a pattern. If the cycle repeats itself, Obama and his agenda is going to get crushed along with the rest of us. Hopefully the Fed will be smart enough to sponge up all of the extra dollars when the economy starts to turn around, but I won't hold my breath.
Back to this recession... What's going to pull us out? Obviously with our continued policy of letting someone else fund our government (Republicans and Democrats), we eventually have to have something they will want in return and I do not mean US$ (hard assets like manufactured goods, real estate, technology, etc.). Alternative energy is the current buzzword, but when most of the world already is leaps and bounds beyond us (wind power - Europe, ethanol - Brazil, battery technology - Asia) I don't see this industry being our savior.
One scary reality that I have found more and more true as I continue to work in industry... Accountants run the world. It is amazing how much non-sense is in a companies monthly financial report. Most of the numbers are not real just variances and the most aggravating part about it. When asked where these variances originate or how are they calculated 9 times out of 10 they do not have a clue. It's statements like this that truly frighten me.
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